Record high potential exists for 2017 soybean production

Record high potential exists for 2017 soybean production

USDA's report forecast the 2017 USA average soybean yield at 49.4 bushels per acre and total soybean production at a new record-high of 4.381 billion bushels. If realized, 2017/18 soybean yields would be 5.2 percent below the record crop of 2016/17, however, due to higher harvested area, soybean production would be 1.7 percent above last year's record crop. The average soybean yield was forecast at 49.4 bushels an acre, down 5% from 52.1 bushels past year, with harvested area forecast at a record high 88.7 million acres, unchanged from June but up 7% from 2016.

For soybeans, USDA said the crop would be 4.381 billion bushels, eclipsing the 2016 harvest's total of 4.307 billion bushels.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's forecasts for both corn and soybean yield and production topped the high end of market forecasts, with the soybean outlook estimated at record highs.

The USDA estimated US production of Spring Wheat other than durum at 402-M bu, down from 423-M in July but well above the average trade estimate of 393-M. The report found as of July 30, 61% of this year's corn crop was in good or excellent condition, 15% below the same time last ear. Estimates were based on conditions as of August 1.

"Conditions remain favorable for soybean production", Knopf said.

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Winter wheat outturn was estimated at 1.287 billion bushels, up 1% from July but down 23% from 1.671 billion bushels in 2016. The United States yield is forecast at 50 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month and down 5.3 bushels from previous year. The average trade estimate for the final corn yield was 165 bushels per acre and ranged from 162.4 to 168 bushels per acre. Harvested acreage was estimated at 60,000 acres, down 1,000 acres from last year's crop.

In France, farmers had nearly finished harvesting wheat by the start of this week, with 97 percent of the crop cut, farm office FranceAgriMer said. It is because August weather data is uncertain that some in the trade are projecting crop yields as high as 49.5 bushels per acre - in line with USDA's current projection.

The most active soybean futures are down almost 1.5 percent for the week, extending losses into a third consecutive week. As more information is revealed about the size of the 2017 crop, attention will then turn to the pace of corn and soybean consumption to derive price expectations throughout the marketing year.

September spring wheat futures at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange dropped 4.2% to $6.74 a bushel, falling to the lowest point since late June.

This WASDE's estimate of world wheat production and ending stocks may kill the hope for significantly higher prices between now and July 2018.

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